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Brisk air rolls in this week in lakes area, snow and rain likely

The normal high this time of the year is 54 degrees, the weather service reported. Low temperatures Sunday night were expected to be 10 degrees below normal.

Weather one
The National Weather Service in Duluth illustrates the snow possibility coming Tuesday-Tuesday night, Oct. 20, in northeastern Minnesota. The illustration shows Brainerd has a 88% chance to receive 1 or more inches of snow.

It appears this week the Brainerd lakes area may see rain and snow showers โ€” with the biggest possibility of snow Tuesday, Oct. 20, and Thursday into Friday.

The National Weather Service of Duluth reported the system for Tuesday into Tuesday night could drop a few inches of snow across portions of the Northland, including central Minnesota.

In Little Falls, the weather service listed a potential for 3-5 inches of snow Tuesday.

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People have and will also be feeling the colder, brisk air, as temperatures dropped significantly in the past week โ€” and this week temperature highs will linger in the upper 30s and the lows in the upper 20s. The normal high this time of the year is 54 degrees, the weather service reported. Low temperatures Sunday night were expected to be 10 degrees below normal.

For the first 17 days of October, the average high is 58.4 degrees and the average low is 36.2 degrees. To put into perspective of how fast the temperatures have dropped just in the past week โ€” It was 63 degrees Sunday, Oct. 11, which dropped to 46 degrees Thursday to 42 degrees Friday to 37 degrees Saturday.

October has gone from a near record-setting high to below normal temps. On Oct. 9, Brainerd missed breaking the record high of 83 degrees set in 1938 โ€” by 2 degrees, as Brainerd hit 82. The Oct. 9 high temperature was nearly 20 degrees warmer than normal and stood out in a week where temperatures were in the 70s and upper 60s. The following week remained in the upper 50s to low 60s for daytime highs. Then temperatures dropped late last week with the past weekend highs about 12 degrees colder than normal.

Winter 2020
This 2020-2021 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the Northern Tier of the U.S. and drier-than-average weather is favored across the South. (NOAA Climate.gov, using NWS CPC data)

Last week, the weather service hosted a weather webinar about the winter season coming with meteorologists in northern Minnesota. In the webinar, Joe Moore, warning coordination meteorologist with the weather service in Duluth, said moving forward to this winter, a lot of the weather models that look at global weather patterns โ€” predict a warmer winter and report temperatures to be near normal.

However, Moore said La Nina, which is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, shows signs that it may be near normal or below normal for Minnesota. Moore said northwestern Minnesota, to include Duluth may be near normal, but โ€œwe could still have occasional cold shots of arctic air that bring that average down. Precipitation, we have a little bit more confidence there. We're pretty confident that it's going to be above normal. But that might mean more snow or it may just mean that we have more wet snow events where it's more of the concrete heavy wet stuff, not so much the fluffy stuff. But in terms of the inches of snow at the end of the season we might end up being pretty close to normal.โ€

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Temperatures this week

  • Monday, Oct. 19: A slight chance of rain and snow showers between 2-3 p.m. Then a slight chance of rain showers after 3 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Calm winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%. During the overnight there may be a 20% chance of snow after 2 a.m. It is expected to be mostly cloudy, with a low around 25 with a calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

  • Tuesday: Snow is expected before 4 p.m., then rain and snow. High near 36. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half-inch may be possible. Rain and snow, is expected to become all snow after 7 p.m., then gradually ending. The low may be around 27, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable at night. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  • Wednesday: A slight chance of rain is expected after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. West wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. A slight chance of rain is expected before 8 p.m., then a slight chance of rain and snow between 8-11 p.m., then a chance of snow after 11 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

  • Thursday: Snow may be likely before 11 a.m., then rain and snow likely between 11 a.m. to 2 p.m., then rain likely after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. A northeast wind of 5 to 10 mph is expected, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Rain may be likely before 8 p.m., then a chance of rain and snow between 8-11 p.m. A chance of snow is expected after 11 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26 and a north wind around 10 mph, with gusts may be as high as 20 mph.

  • Friday-Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow is expected Friday and a chance of snow Friday. Both days are expected to be partly cloudy, with a high near 37 Friday and a high near 37 and Saturday.
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