BRAINERD — This past winter has been one for the records books in northern Minnesota.
Several areas are approaching record snowfall totals, including Brainerd, which has had more than 6 1/2 feet of snowfall this year.
That much snow — along with a near-record 4-7 inches of water in the snowpack — is pushing the risk of flooding throughout the region, especially along the Mississippi River between Aitkin and Fort Ripley.
We don’t think that we’re going to be able to get by with this with no flooding whatsoever. There’s so much water sitting on the ground there will be some amount of flooding but the weather is really going to drive whether this is a bad year or a really, really bad year.
As of Tuesday, March 22, Brainerd has received 79.6 inches of snowfall, which ranks as the second most snowfall on record since 1948, according to data from the National Weather Service in Duluth. Brainerd currently is just a foot behind the record of 80.6 inches set in the 1996-97 winter season.
That much snow has increased the spring flooding potential across northern Minnesota to above normal, the National Weather Service in Duluth reported in its Thursday, March 23, flood outlook, with increased risk for moderate to potentially major flooding on the Mississippi River at Aitkin and Fort Ripley.
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In fact, the flood risk has risen considerably in just the last month, said Ketzel Levens, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Duluth.
“With each update of these outlooks we’ve just seen that risk chance go further up on the Mississippi River and really at all of our forecast points,” Levens said during a Thursday, March 23, flood outlook session.
For the Mississippi River near Aitkin, the flood stage is 13 feet. In February, there was a 67% chance of minor flooding and a 40% chance of moderate flooding in Aitkin. Thursday’s outlook pushed those chances to greater than 95% for minor and moderate flooding.
“We can almost guarantee we’ll get into moderate flooding,” for the Mississippi River in Aitkin, Levens said.
Note that spring flooding is highly dependent on our weather pattern in the coming weeks, so stay tuned. Our next spring flood outlook will be issued in early April. More info available at https://t.co/lUJVbiyro8 pic.twitter.com/kDKeR27pnL
— NWS Duluth (@NWSduluth) March 23, 2023
Moderate flooding at Aitkin occurs when the river reaches 15 feet. Major flooding occurs when the river reaches 18 feet.
Historic high crests of the Mississippi River in Aitkin were:
- 22.49 feet in 1950,
- 19.5 feet in 1905,
- 19.3 feet in 1916,
- 18.8 feet in 1944,
- 18.77 feet in 1948.
Recent high crests were:
- 15.38 feet in 2020,
- 12.59 feet in 2018,
- 13.02 feet in 2017,
- 14.17 feet in 2016,
- 12.26 feet in 2015.
At Fort Ripley, the Mississippi River has a flood stage of 10.5 feet. In February, there was a 48% chance of minor flooding and 16% chance of moderate flooding. The latest outlook shows a 95% chance of minor flooding and 61% chance of moderate flooding at Fort Ripley.
Moderate flooding at Fort Ripley occurs when the river reaches 12.5 feet and major flooding occurs when the river reaches 26 feet.
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Historic high crests of the Mississippi River in Fort Ripley:
- 14.30 feet in 1966,
- 14.15 feet in 1997,
- 13.84 feet in 2001,
- 13.6 feet in 1965,
- 13.3 feet in 1950.
Recent high crests were:
- 11.36 feet in 2020,
- 11.05 feet in 2016,
- 10.34 feet in 2015,
- 9.71 feet in 2005,
- 6.90 feet in 2004.
Looking ahead, the next seven days are quiet as far as weather is concerned, with temperatures above freezing during the day and below freezing at night. That’s a pattern northern Minnesota needs, said Joe Moore, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Duluth. To ease the risk of flooding, Moore said snow needs to melt slowly.
“The weather pattern we see over the next coming weeks is really going to drive whether things get really bad or things are just worse than a normal year,” Moore said. “We don’t think that we’re going to be able to get by with this with no flooding whatsoever. There’s so much water sitting on the ground there will be some amount of flooding but the weather is really going to drive whether this is a bad year or a really, really bad year.”
On a positive note, Levens pointed out the snowfall has pretty much erased drought conditions in northern Minnesota and, unlike in 2022, there’s little to no frost in the ground, meaning there is room for the water to be absorbed.
While precipitation is not in the forecast for the next seven days, the outlook for April shows slightly above normal precipitation, which could also cause flooding as rain melts snow, Moore said.
The National Weather Service in Duluth advised residents to prepare for potential flooding now by shoveling around their house, clearing about 3-4 feet away; checking to make sure sump pumps are working; clearing snow from gutters, downspouts and from over entrances; and clearing snow away from storm drains. “If you’ve experienced spring snowmelt flooding problems in the past, you will likely experience problems this spring,” Levens said.
Snow depth is high across the Northland, but there is an impressive gradient to the south. The highest is in Lake and Bayfield Co, and near Wrenshall, where latest snow depth obs are 40-50". Parts of SE MN and much of southern WI don't have any snow on the ground! #mnwx #wiwx pic.twitter.com/Nn3mRfv5GO
— NWS Duluth (@NWSduluth) March 23, 2023
Brainerd top 10 snowfalls since 1948
- 80.6 inches — 1996-1997
- 79.6 inches — 2022-2023
- 79.4 inches — 1988-1989
- 77.3 inches — 2021-2022
- 75.3 inches — 1968-1969
- 73.5 inches — 2017-2018
- 73 inches — 2012-2013
- 71.9 inches — 2018-2019
- 71.3 inches — 1970-1971
- 70 inches — 1964-1965
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MATT ERICKSON, Editor, may be reached at matt.erickson@brainerddispatch.com or 218-855-5857.
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