Flood advisory in effect in Brainerd area

BRAINERD — With unseasonably warm temperatures, the spring melt off is well underway in the Brainerd lakes area.

That’s a welcome event for most area residents, but the amount of water being released from the vanishing snowpack has meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Duluth concerned about flooding.

The weather service Monday, April 10, issued a flood advisory for Aitkin, Cass and Crow Wing counties into Thursday afternoon.

The advisory was issued as a heads up to people to be cautious as water could creep on to roads, pond near buildings and swell waterways, said Steve Gohde, hydrology program manager with the National Weather Service in Duluth.

“There’s a couple things going on and we put out the advisory to alert people that we have a pretty abnormal year as far as late snowpack and pretty darn hot temperatures out there creating a fast melt rate,” Gohde said. “We’re expecting rapid snowmelt and runoff starting with nuisance flooding around peoples foundation, then swelling creeks and streams, then the main stem of the Mississippi River.”

Gohde said flood warnings may be issued later in the week for the Mississippi River in Aitkin, Fort Ripley and potentially Brainerd. There is a 95% chance of minor flooding of the Mississippi RIver at Aitkin and Fort Ripley, the weather service reported. There’s also a 95% chance of moderate flooding of the Mississippi River at Aitkin, and 61% chance of moderate flooding at Fort Ripley.

A chance of precipitation — rain and possibly snow — at the end of the week won’t help the flood outlook. There’s a chance of rain Thursday through Saturday, and a slight chance of snow Sunday and Monday.

“We’ve got a snowpack that’s no longer able to hold any moisture,” Gohde said. “We do have potential for rain out there toward the end of week but right now we’re fairly uncertain the mode the precipitation will take. However, we are alert to any additional precipitation that could runoff right away on oversaturated ground.”

One thing northern Minnesota has going in its favor is the lack of frost in the ground, which allows for some water absorption, Gohde said. While that might help to mitigate the situation from being worse, as happened in 2022, he said soils are still headed toward saturation.

“Things are definitely waking up out there,” Gohde said.

Tips from the National Weather Service in Duluth:

• Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
• Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
• Report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and to the National Weather Service in Duluth when you can do so safely. Flooding can be reported to the National Weather Service at 800-685-8612.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 69 degrees. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37 degrees. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight.

Thursday: A 30% chance of rain, mainly before 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 69 degrees. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Thursday night: A 30% chance of rain, mainly after 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43 degrees. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday: A chance of rain before 1 p.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 67 degrees. Breezy, with a south wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34 degrees. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Saturday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47 degrees. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday night: A chance of rain and snow before 1 a.m., then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26 degrees. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Sunday: A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 44 degrees. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Sunday night: A slight chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 25 degrees. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Monday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 49 degrees. Breezy, with a northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

MATT ERICKSON, Editor, may be reached at matt.erickson@brainerddispatch.com or 218-855-5857.