Lightning could also illuminate the sky this 4th of July

BRAINERD — Residents and visitors should keep an eye on the skies for more than just fireworks this Independence Day.

As of Sunday, the forecast for Monday, July 4, from the National Weather Service in Duluth reported thunderstorms are likely, with the highest chances earlier in the day as heavier showers and storms enter the region overnight Sunday, including a marginal risk for severe weather near the Brainerd lakes area. The severe weather threat, however, extends through the nighttime hours on the Fourth of July.

“Showers and storms will likely be ongoing Monday morning,” the weather service stated. “This activity is currently expected to taper off by late morning but there still remains concern for redevelopment in the afternoon. If storms do redevelop they may turn severe. If you have outdoor plans be prepared to head indoors and seek shelter if storms threaten.”

The areas carrying a marginal risk for severe storms Monday include portions of central and east-central Minnesota, generally south of a line from Pine River to Superior, Wisconsin. The strongest storms developing along this line could produce damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, hail to golf ball-size, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and torrential rainfall leading to localized flooding.

Temperature-wise, this year’s holiday is expected to reach a high in line with the average for this time of year in the Brainerd area. A high of 81 degrees forecast for Monday matches the normal high of 81 for the date. If the forecast holds, Independence Day this year will remain cooler than the last two. In 2021, the high reached 95 degrees, and in 2020, the temperature topped out at 90 degrees.

The record for the Brainerd area, according to the weather service, is 97 degrees recorded on July 4, 1988. The lowest high temperature recorded in the area was 67 degrees, occurring July 4, 1960.

Monday, July 4: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 10 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Southeast wind 5-10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday night: A 40% chance of showers and thundersetorms, mainly before 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Northeast wind arond 5 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with a high near 77. Northeast wind 5-10 mph with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday night: Partly cloud with a low around 58. East wind 5-10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Wednesday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10 a.m. Partly sunny with a high near 79. East wind 5-10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.

Source: National Weather Service in Duluth.