Rare air: Dangerously cold wind chills to linger

When the weather forecaster says, "It's going to be really bad"-it means it's going to be really bad.

National Weather Service Meteorologist Geoffrey Grochocinski stationed in Duluth said to see it this cold during the day hours is almost unheard of.

"This is an unusual cold air mass coming from Canada that we don't see very often, maybe every 10 years," Grochocinski said. "This is a serious situation.

"I've never experienced a 50-60 below zero wind chill."

The brutal cold made its appearance Tuesday, Jan. 29, in the Brainerd lakes area and the state and is expected to continue its visit through Thursday morning.

The National Weather Service in Duluth expected a wind chill of 63 below in Brainerd Tuesday night into Wednesday morning; 37 below wind chill Wednesday afternoon; and the forecast called for 52 below wind chills Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Farther north in Walker, NWS expected it to be even colder with 67 below wind chill Tuesday night into Wednesday morning; 39 below wind chill Wednesday afternoon; and 53 below wind chill Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

The NWS defines wind chill as a measure of heat loss from wind and temperature compared to an equivalent ambient air temperature in calm wind.

The low temperature alone Wednesday night in Brainerd is expected to be 36 degrees below zero-2 degrees warmer than what was forecast 24 hours earlier-but with a wind chill value of 52 below, the 2 degrees won't much matter.

Temperatures dropped throughout the day Tuesday and at about 5:50 p.m., Brainerd already saw a wind chill of 52 below.

Cold light of day

When looking at the daytime air temperature alone, Wednesday in Brainerd is expected to be mostly sunny with a high near 17 below. Thursday's high may creep up to 5 below, but then drop at night to an expected 16 below. The cold mass should leave Friday, with a high near 10 and may rebound to near 33 degrees above zero Saturday-downright tropical in comparison.

Records may be broken that stretch back more than 20 years.

The record low temperature on Jan. 30 in Brainerd was 40 degrees below zero, set in 1996. The high temperature forecast for that date this year is 15 degrees below zero. The coldest daytime temp-or record lowest high-for Jan. 30 in Brainerd is 12 degrees below, also was set in the frigid January of 1996.

The low temperature Tuesday night was expected to be 32 degrees below zero. The record low temperature for Jan. 29 is 38 degrees below zero, set in 1965.

Grochocinski said the all-time record for the coldest day in Minnesota was set in February 1996 in Tower, which was at 60 below zero-air temperature only.

At least one area resident was in Tower that day and experienced the nearly unbelievable bitter cold. Former Crow Wing County Commissioner Rachel Reabe Nystrom found herself in the city just south of Lake Vermillion that record-breaking day, and said this week's weather brought memories back.

She and husband Bob were returning home from a stay on Burntside Lake near Ely, where they'd hoped to do some cross-country skiing. The weather made that nearly impossible. Nystrom worked for Minnesota Public Radio at the time, she said, and the stunning cold led her to be interviewed by journalists across the pond at BBC.

"They were just shocked," Nystrom said. "They're like, 'No.' We were telling them we were throwing the water in the air and it was coming down as ice, and they said, 'No!'"

Nystrom said she thinks it's hard to tell the difference between 30 below or 60 below, when it's just that cold.

"You know how we all like to talk about the weather? But we were in the weather," Nystrom said. "Really, it was just a ball."

Comparable cold?

Grochocinski said the last brutal winter he can recall was in 2014, when the government closed down all the schools for the entire state. Brainerd had a wind chill of 43 below on Jan. 6, 2014. The wind was 14 mph and the air temperature 19 below at that time.

"So, 2014 is not a comparable situation for what Brainerd will see (Tuesday) night," Grochocinski said. "It's likely been more than a decade, maybe two, since Brainerd saw 60 below wind chills or colder."

The NWS reports, with wind chill values colder than 60 below, frostbite may develop on exposed skin in five minutes or less.

"On Wednesday afternoon wind chills will, at best, warm up to 30 to 40 below zero," the NWS reported. "Wednesday night into Thursday morning winds will not be as strong, but air temperatures will plummet to near-record values."

The cold weather prompted schools, businesses, churches and government agencies to close Tuesday and Wednesday. One closing to take note of that is almost unheard of is the U.S. Postal Service, which suspended its deliveries on Wednesday, Jan. 30, in Minnesota, western Wisconsin, Iowa and western Illinois.

The Postal Service stated retail operations at local offices will be available, but may be limited.

There will be no collection mail pick up from businesses or collection boxes. Additionally, there will be no residential or commercial package pick-up services.

CenterPoint Energy reported its technicians were busy, focusing on customers who were without heat. Two area businesses that also install remote automatic vehicle starters reported being busy with calls for that service.

The NWS continues to monitor the extremely cold arctic air mass that covers the entire Upper Midwest, and in particular at least some potential that state record low temperatures for both Minnesota and Wisconsin could be approached Thursday.

"At this time, even though it will continue to be extremely cold (Tuesday) night and Wednesday with extremely cold and potentially life-threatening wind chills, the combination of cloud cover and winds tonight should preclude any attempt at air temperatures approaching all-time record lows," the NWS reported.

The NWS encourages people to limit their time outdoors, stay dry and wear waterproof insulated boots and to stay covered. People should dress warmly and in layers. Pets and livestock should also be monitored and given shelter. Pets should be limited in their times outdoors and should be provided with plenty of water. Tuesday afternoon there were several calls on the police scanner with people reporting dogs outside without shelter.

125 years ago, 'Children's Blizzard' hits Minnesota

The winter of 1887-88 was ferocious and unrelenting, according to a MinnPost's Minnesota History article.

"November vacillated between ice storms, snowstorms and subzero temperatures. December dumped mountains of snow: 20.2 inches in Moorhead, 39.5 inches at Morris, 33 inches at Mankato. Then on Jan. 5, 1888, a massive sleet storm coated the snowy drifts with treacherous ice, putting scores of restless farmers and schoolchildren under house arrest but for the most essential chores," a recent MinnPost article stated.

A clear, bright day and mild day brought people outside. It would prove to be fleeting.

"When the storm hit, it caught so many settlers by surprise that between 250 and 500 people died that weekend, according to estimates by newspaper editors in Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and the Dakota Territory," MinnPost reported. "A precise number has never been determined, but 'undoubtedly many deaths were never reported from remote outlying districts,' wrote journalist David Laskin, author of "The Children's Blizzard" published by Harper Perennial in 2004. Laskin added: 'Scores died in the weeks after the storm of pneumonia and infections contracted during amputations.'"

MinnPost noted climate historians are quick to say the "Children's Blizzard"-so named because many of the victims were school kids trying to make it home-was not the most extreme blizzard ever to strike Minnesota. But 125 years later, it remains the most deadly, due to tragic circumstances.

"The storm's ambush approach in the middle of an afternoon, the lack of warning from the Army Signal Corps, and the mild, January thaw-like morning were all factors that conspired to kill with maximum efficiency."

Minnesota, too, was populated like never before, but many new homes and schoolhouses were hastily built affairs at best with gap-holed walls and tar paper roofs, thrown up in the break-neck excitement of westward settlement, the article stated.

The storm happened at the tail-end of a six-year run of extreme weather called the "Little Ice Age." Climate historian and retired state policy analyst Thomas St. Martin of Woodbury wrote in an abstract that a series of phenomena, including the eruption of the Indonesian volcano Krakatoa in August 1883, created an atmospheric shield against solar radiation that plunged the globe into the deep freeze from 1882 to 1888. In the long gaze of history, the powerful blizzard of Jan. 12, 1888, was a final exclamation point.

"For the settlers who lived through it, the Jan. 12 blizzard was not historic but harrowing, a day of extreme trial for a people who already knew hard living. Farmer and Norwegian immigrant Austin Rollag, just over the state line in Valley Springs, S.D, wrote that air turned silent and ominous and in the next moment, the blizzard crashed in. ...

"Schoolchildren, many of whom had left for school without coats, hats and mittens-the better to bask in the comparative warmth of a January thaw-were overcome by the blizzard. In many places, the storm made its debut just as students were walking back home from school. The air was not only filled with blowing ice, but temperatures plummeted to frightening lows," MinnPost reported.

**UPDATE**

This story was updated to correct the date of the record cold in Tower. The Dispatch regrets the error.