Wellens: Bulldogs' chances to play in Fargo may depend on UND
DULUTH - Minnesota Duluth sophomore defensemen Louie Roehl and Matt Anderson joined the Bulldog Insider Podcast this week to talk about a variety of subjects. During the rapid fire round, we touched on the NCAA tournament.
With just one regional in the west — Fargo — and three out east — Allentown, Pa., Manchester, N.H., and Providence, R.I. — this year, I posed the question, ‘Would you rather take a bus ride to Fargo or fly out east?’
“Bus ride to Fargo,” Roehl said without hesitation, and was quickly backed up by Anderson.
Asked if they’d be willing to lose in this weekend’s NCHC tournament first round in order to head to Fargo, however, their answer changed.
With less than two weeks to go now before the men’s ice hockey version of Selection Sunday, the Bulldogs are on track to make their fifth consecutive NCAA tournament and be one of the four No. 1 seeds when regionals get underway March 29. UMD sits fourth in the Pairwise rankings — the formula used to select and seed the tournament — and is one of six teams that are considered locks to make the field of 16.
There won’t be any 0.0001 theatrics this year. The only real mystery for the Bulldogs at this point is where will they end up?
If the season ended today, the Bulldogs likely would be the top seed in the East Regional in Providence.
Why there of all places?
St. Cloud State, as a near lock to be the tournament’s top overall seed for the second year in a row, gets first dibs, so the Huskies will stay close to home in Fargo.
Second overall seed Massachusetts should technically go to Providence since that’s the closest regional to their Amherst campus, however, the NCAA selection committee likes to protect the top seeds. The committee also likes to place the Providence Friars — ninth in the Pairwise — in their hometown for attendance reasons. Brown is the actual East Regional host.
To protect the Minutemen, the NCAA will make them drive an extra 20 miles or so north to Manchester for the Northeast Regional.
As the third overall seed, Minnesota State-Mankato would get sent to the closest regional left — the not-so-Midwest in Allentown — while the Bulldogs as the lowest No. 1 seed gets a regional in Providence that features Providence.
So how locked in is all of this? Not very. Minus the Huskies in Fargo, the bracket changes on a week-to-week basis.
Only last week, the Bulldogs were the third overall seed and projected to be less than 100 miles from the ocean in the Midwest Regional. UMD could easily flip with the Mavericks again — they are separated by 0.0024 in the ratings percentage index — or the Bulldogs could flip with No. 5 Quinnipiac, which is only 0.0002 of an RPI point back of UMD.
Falling to No. 5 in the Pairwise means the Bulldogs would drop into the band of No. 2 seeds, and technically could be moved to Fargo. That’s not happening, though. As with UMass, the NCAA will protect the top seeds. The committee is willing to swap No. 7 Denver and No. 8 Northeastern to boost attendance, but they aren’t going to stick the No. 1 Huskies with a second-round matchup against the No. 5 Bulldogs.
So how can Roehl and Anderson — and the fans and local media — get the sought-after short drive to Fargo? Most won’t like the answer. You will have to root for North Dakota to win the NCHC Frozen Faceoff.
That’s right. Remember all that talk about protecting the top seeds? Well if North Dakota wins twice at Denver — even after getting diverted around a Rocky Mountain blizzard 500 miles south to Albuquerque, N.M. — and captures the NCHC postseason title, they’ll be the No. 4 seed in Fargo as the hosts.
If that happens, the Huskies will get protected and Brett Larson and Co. will head out east — but not to Providence. Then either UMD or Minnesota State would be placed in Fargo before a raucous crowd of Fighting Hawks fans. It likely would be whoever is No. 4 overall.
A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday, though. No one knows that better than the Bulldogs, who a year ago went into the Frozen Faceoff eighth in the Pairwise before tumbling to 12th and nabbing the final at-large spot from Minnesota by 0.0001 of an RPI point.
My advice, hold off on booking any travel until after the 6 p.m. selection show March 24, and if you do reserve anything, make sure it’s 100 percent refundable.
If the season ended today:
1. St. Cloud State vs. 16. American International
7. Denver vs. 10. Arizona State
2. Massachusetts vs. 15. Notre Dame
8. Northeastern vs. 11. Clarkson
3. Minnesota State vs. 13. Western Michigan
6. Ohio State vs. 12. Cornell
4. Minnesota Duluth vs. 14. Harvard
5. Quinnipiac vs. 9. Providence