Spring flooding a possibility on Mississippi River in Aitkin, Fort Ripley

BRAINERD — Spring flooding could be an issue this spring in central Minnesota.

The National Weather Service in Duluth released its spring flood outlook for northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Thursday, Feb. 9, noting there is an above normal chance of flooding on the Mississippi River at Aitkin and Fort Ripley.

Winter precipitation has been above normal, the weather service noted in its outlook, and the snowpack is elevated but the frost depth is low, which could allow snowmelt to more quickly infiltrate the soil.

“Right now it’s hard to tell,” if recent warm weather helped alleviate the flood outlook, said Krystal Kossen, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Duluth. “Overall, some melted and absorbed into ground already, so it could lower it, but ground will likely stay saturated, so we could see runoff. Especially if it all melts at once, with the ground saturated, we could have some serious problems.”

Precipitation and temperatures over the spring, including the snow melt rate, may cause the risk to increase. Late winter and spring precipitation is expected to be above normal for most of northern Minnesota, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported.

Which means winter weather, like one-tenth to quarter inch of rain and 1-3 inches of snow expected Tuesday, Feb. 14, through Wednesday, is not close to being done yet.

“Winter will likely return for next month or more,” Kossen said.

For the Mississippi River near Aitkin, the flood stage is 13 feet. There’s a 67% chance of minor flooding and a 40% chance of moderate flooding, according to the weather service’s outlook. Moderate flooding occurs when the river reaches 15 feet. Major flooding occurs when the river reaches 18 feet.

Historic high crests of the Mississippi River in Aitkin were:

• 22.49 feet in 1950, 
• 19.5 feet in 1905, 
• 19.3 feet in 1916,
• 18.8 feet in 1944,
• 18.77 feet in 1948. 

Recent high crests were:

• 15.38 feet in 2020, 
• 12.59 feet in 2018, 
• 13.02 feet in 2017, 
• 14.17 feet in 2016,
• 12.26 feet in 2015.

At Fort Ripley, the Mississippi River has a flood stage of 10.5 feet. According to the outlook there’s a 48% chance of minor flooding and 16% chance of moderate flooding. Moderate flooding occurs when the river reaches 12.5 feet and major flooding occurs when the river reaches 26 feet.
Historic high crests of the Mississippi River in Fort Ripley were:

• 14.30 feet in 1966, 
• 14.15 feet in 1997, 
• 13.84 feet in 2001, 
• 13.6 feet in 1965, 
• 13.3 feet in 1950. 

Recent high crests were:

• 11.36 feet in 2020, 
• 11.05 feet in 2016,
• 10.34 feet in 2015, 
• 9.71 feet in 2005,
• 6.90 feet in 2004.

MATT ERICKSON, Editor, may be reached at matt.erickson@brainerddispatch.com or 218-855-5857.